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Fitch Ratings: Overall 2022 U.S. CMBS Delinquency Rate to Dip Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

| Feb 18, 2022

Fitch Ratings expects the hotel delinquency rate to fall to 5.50% by YE 2022. Hotel property cash flows have improved from pandemic lows, allowing for excess/trapped cash to bring loan payments current, supported by an improved operating environment and healthy leisure demand. Fitch has slightly increased its RevPAR recovery trajectory forecast to 81% of peak 2019 levels in 2022 and 92% in 2023, with a return to 2019 levels during 2024 vs. 2025 previously. Fitch also expects hotel loan origination volume to increase in 2022 relative to the de minimis amounts seen in 2021.

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